Modeling and forecasting of Covid-19 from the context of Ghana
Author(s):
Jamal Mohammed, Abdullah Mohammed Ghazi al Khatib, Pradeep Mishra, Prince Adjei, Pankaj Kumar Singh, S.R Krishan Priya and S.S. Das
Article history:
Received: 16th July, 2020
Accepted: 25th November, 2020
Handling editor: Muazu Ibrahim (PhD)
Abstract:
Developing countries have had their share regarding the spread and effect of Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Ghana is no exception. We have used the data on new deaths, total deaths, total cases, new cases, collected on a daily basis from 13th March 2020 to 30th September 2020, obtained from the Ghana Health Services. We then considered appropriate time series models. This has provided robust results to help make an informed decision towards the future. The forecasted results (from the best fitted models) reveals adecrease in an amount of 174-88 in the daily new cases by flowing a linear trend, which also leads to decrease in total cases by following the same trend (from 46600 to 44942 in numbers) during the period 1-10-2020 to 10-10-2020. The government of Ghana should strictly enforce protocols established to curb COVID-19 in Ghana, encourage social distancing and other COVID-19 prevention protocols to reduce the spread of COVID-19 new cases and deaths.
Keywords:
Forecasting; Modeling; ARIMA; SARIMA; Covid-19; Ghana.
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